The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks on the Job-Finding Rate and Separation Rate ∗ [JOB MARKET PAPER]

Increases in uncertainty lead to increases in the unemployment rate. Using US data, I show empirically that this is due to both an increase in the separation rate and a decrease in the job-finding rate. By contrast, standard search and matching models predict an increase in the job finding rate in response to an increase in the cross-sectional dispersion of firms’ productivity levels. To explain observed responses in labour market transition rates, I develop a search and matching model in which heterogeneous firms face a decreasing returns to scale technology, firms can hire multiple workers, and job flows (job creation and job destruction) do not necessarily coincide with worker flows (hires and separations). Costly job creation (in addition to the usual hiring cost) is key to obtaining a decrease in the job-finding rate after an increase in uncertainty. Standard numerical solution techniques cannot be used to obtain an accurate solution effi ciently and I propose an alternative algorithm to overcome this problem. JEL classification: C63, E24, E32, J63, J64.